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AGAINST THE SPREADS

Week 12 Best Plays - 83-56-5 2K19

There's so much promise to this type of world we live in. It's mostly a promise of future regret but nonetheless, it's fun to think / research / compare and share / and hope the bets we make are the ones that hit. There's a promise of standing in line at the casino's sportsbook - and damn the line seems so long - especially when it's close to kickoff. There's a promise of sneaking in that one last bet online with your phone in-between texting your wife and work and getting to the TV just in time to watch it probably all fade away.  But at least you got it in. Doesn't matter what happened the week before, the day before, the night before ... the next one is going to hit. You're sure of it. The next one, whether it's worth a $50 play, $100 or two grand, 5-game parlay is all you need to make everything right again in your universe. It's a problem. It's an addiction. But man isn't it fun? 


The fun for me, just short of 60% (59.7) at 83-56-5, is always what could have been. The fun for me, is looking at the lines for hours and hours and picking the wrong games, seemingly every fucking time, knowing I missed out on something I handicapped ... and why oh why did I stay away? Because despite an above-average record, there's always those two or three games every week that would have worked better in a parlay, straight-up, or made a small fortune in a goddamn moneyline. 


So here we are, Week 12, and I think I know what to do. But I'm sure I will talk myself out of so many great cashes. At some point doesn't Cincinnati cover 6.5 at home against a terrible Pittsburgh team? And have the Steelers moved past the chaotic TNF debacle? At some point do we reconsider Chicago -6.5 hosting the Giants? How do you justify almost a touchdown with Trubisky? Is Atlanta worth another play at -4.5 hosting Tampa Bay? And what about them goddamn Bills? Does't it feel like Denver and Buffalo are kind of the same team?


BEST PLAYS "BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITCH" - Too $hort 


The Born to Mack vinyl is hanging up in my office / podcast / getaway room wall. It might be the best rap album of all-time, at least that's what Snoop Dogg said a few years ago, and I'm not sure he's wrong. If you never heard it before, it's probably because you're a millennial stuck in monotonous pop culture, a dumbass who thinks Drake is good - or a healthy combination of both However, there's a classic track called "Dope Fiend Beat" that carries an overwhelming basslines that will smack you in the face. Get on Spotify and listen, and if you're any kind of religious, drink some holy water beforehand. It goes on for 6:30 minutes, longer than any Browns drive this year, and $hort goes on and on about the crack/cocaine slash hoe/whore scene in the early-80's of Oakland, along with his legendary penchant for pimping. You might be wondering what this intro has to do with football, trust me, I got you. 


Our Week 12 eyes are about to be pimpslapped; Dolphins vs Browns / Broncos vs Bills / Giants vs Bears / Lions vs Redskins / Steelers vs Bengals. And one of my favorite games; Raiders at the Jets. I never thought, in at least the next 3 years, Oakland would be markedly better than the Jets ... but outside of record differential, are they really? Oakland is a real football team. Shockingly, 0.5 games behind Kansas City, who was supposed to be undefeated or at least nothing more than a 2-loss team according to a lot of "experts." The Raiders can very well win the AFC West. But first, all they have to do is send Josh Jacobs on a 20-carry mission to 100+ yards, not make silly mistakes, play decent defense and beat the Jets and then, December 1st will be the a pivotal chance beat KC in KC. And honestly, I think they can do it. It's time to start respecting what Gruden has done. Derek Carr is 2nd in completion percentage, doesn't get sacked much, and has thrown 15 TD's to just 5INT. Oakland doesn't do anything sexy. They don't lead the NFL, or even the AFC in any statistical category, but they're better than the Jets, right? Actually not! 


Oakland leads the league in penalties. Yes, they're actually worse than Cleveland. The Raiders are better than NY in redzone efficiency but they allow 3 more 1st-downs per game than the Jets. In a road game where every first down matters, and Cincy had 16 road 1st-down in Week 11 in Oakland, wouldn't it be logical to think the Jets can move the ball? Also, the week before in Week 10, Phillip Rivers gave Oakland 3INT. Problematically, LA was better in 1st-downs, penalties, time-of-possession and total yards ... and Oakland sealed the game with less than five minutes left as 1.5 home underdog. Sometimes you just can't overcome multiple turnovers. If the Jets play a clean game, and I mean IF, they will cover the gome dog. But I can't make predictions off "IF." I think the Jets WILL. In a surprising game, where the public loves Oakland, I llike the J.E.T.S. JETS JETS JETS (+3). 



Buccaneers vs. Falcons (-4): Sometimes in gambling you just gotta ride the hot hand until it's no longer hot. I'm not particularly fond of adding this into the mix but Tampa Bay is a rollercoaster of underachievement and Atlanta is the 2019 heavyweight belt holder of underachievement, until recently. It kind of started Week 8 in Seattle when ATL woke up from a 24-0 beatdown. Combination Seattle playing prevent defense / Atlanta showing some kind of pride and the game finished 27-20 (Falcons late cover). Then the Falcons, fearlessly fighting for Dan Quinn's job, marched into New Orleans and waxed the Saints 26-9. Just as the Saints were looking like a powerhouse, Atlanta put together one of the strangest handicapping mindfucks of the year and won outright as a 13.5 underdog. Not to be outdone, Atlanta was a 4-point dog the following week in Charlotte and beat the up-and-down Panthers 29-3. Do the math; back-to-back games on the road as obvious dogs and now sporting a 4-point favorite at home against an opponent equally as confusing. Should make for a confusing outcome. But I really do like the Falcons here. There will be a ton of yards from the air on both sides. The OVER (52) will be close. But ultimately Jameis Winston will do the Buccaneers in, like he always does, with at least two costly interceptions. 



Seahawks (+1 or +102ML) vs. Eagles: The market is all over Seattle. Philly is unhealthy on the offensive side, again. We know what happens when they're thin at the skill positions, Wentz looks lost and no one else steps up or even attempts to help out. I was all over the Eagles last week as 5-point home dogs but Tom Brady delivered on the opening 2nd-half drive and Philly could not get ANYTHING going throughout the duration of the game. Seattle has more weapons and the MVP. Also, that Seahawks defensive line is completely different since Clowney arrived. 



Good luck my friends, and as always #


Packers (+3) vs. 49ers: More to come...